At this point, the House majority is still undetermined and according to the CNN Elections Results page, 26 contests remain uncalled.  Their defined partisan division count shows 211 Republicans and 198 Democrats.

Obviously, the odds favor Republicans because they are only seven seats away from clinching the majority at 218 seats while Democrats need to win 20 of the outstanding races.  A closer examination, however, suggests the probability of a turnaround in these political fortunes is less daunting.

Adjusting the remaining races where one party or the other has a clear edge in a combination of current vote spread, number of votes outstanding, the districts’ partisan edge, and voting history, we can adjust the CNN numbers to reflect a Republican advantage of 212 to 208.  Doing so brings the number of highly competitive races down to 15.

From this 15, when understanding that the Republicans would now need six wins to claim a minimum majority and the Democrats’ ten, the two parties’ victory odds become closer.

Looking at the 15, a slight edge can be given to the Republicans in seven races while the Democrats can be considered a slight favorite in five.  The remaining three appear too close to call.

If this model is accurate, the Republicans would have enough to block the Democrats from gaining the majority, and might reach 221 if all of the three wild card races were to fall their way.

The seven contests where Republicans lead and look to have a better chance of winning the seat are the following (hit next button):

Subscribe
Notify of
guest
4 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Gracie from AZ
Gracie from AZ
27 days ago

It seems in AZ that Katie Hobbs, the current Secretary of State in charge of elections has screwed up the current and last election by not having clean and clear elections. There are lots of additional factors involved in the 2020 presidential election that were not mentioned on 2000 mules, but any one of them could have swayed the election in favor of democrats. The problem is, we do not have good candidates to demand another election in addition to too many left leaning democrat Judges. I hope Hobbs does not screw up Arizona the way she has fouled elections there.

Ginger Firestone
Ginger Firestone
27 days ago

Time to go back to paper ballots. The machines are just too unreliable and easily tampered with. No matter who won with those malfunctioning machines, those areas need to have a do-over for those voting in person at the machines, Before 2020 we never had even a whisper of fraud because of machines or ballot stuffing. Too many people don’t believe the elections are on the up and up. Time to bring in voter ID. If voting by mail a copy of proof of eligibility to vote and a dated current picture needs to be included and already if voting by internet, one has to show proof (as in a passport) with the person on a live chat for verification for the first time vote and then they are in the system as approved, but they still check for signatures and dates, Even in 3rd world countries like Costa Rica, they have a national ID card and it gives the person their status as temporary resident, permanent resident, and voting rights if they are eligible If they can do it, no excuses why we can’t. Those IDs have to be renewed every few years. There will be people who just can’t afford the price of a passport (the cost seems way too high in my opinion) and for those who can’t afford it, we should pay for them. Their last tax return should verify whether or not they need the subsidy. If our government can come up with money for illegals they sure as hell should be able to help out our own citizens. In fact, if our government would stop spending any money on illegals other than to deport them, our budget would be cut sharply and our taxes lowered.

Stephen Russell
Stephen Russell
26 days ago

Midterm issues:

o Indoc Blue voters who vote Blue
o TV ads blocked in some states
o Big Tech censorship
o NOT United GOP
o Trump comments on Desantis
o Dems election month

Rerun for 2024??

Jawad
Jawad
26 days ago

Can De Muck Rats!!! Send ’em to the silage bin of history!