A professor who accurately predicted President Trump’s victory in 2016 and 25 of the last 27 presidential elections is predicting that President Trump has a 91% chance of being reelected in November.
According to Fox News:
Despite recent polls that identify Joe Biden as the heavy favorite in 2020, a political science professor is still standing by his prediction model that shows President Trump having a “91 percent” chance of winning in November.
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
The model uses the candidates showing in primaries as a heavy factor and his poor showing and lack of enthusiasm in the first two primaries as a key factor.