Pollster Frank Luntz who came to fame for televised focus groups and appearances on Fox News thinks President Trump could decimate his profession.
Thursday evening the pollster told Fox News if President Trump defeats Joe Biden next month that his “profession is done”.
What Luntz meant by that is Americans will no longer have any confidence in pollsters’ ability to provide a snapshot of the electorate if Trump defies the polls again in 2020.
According to The Hill:
Fox News anchor Bret Baier asked Luntz during the network’s pre-debate coverage on Thursday night what the consequences would be for pollsters if the industry gets it wrong again.
“Well, I hate to acknowledge it, because that’s my industry — at least partially — but the public will have no faith. No confidence.
Right now, the biggest issue is the trust deficit. And pollsters did not do a good job in 2016. So if Donald Trump surprises people, if Joe Biden had a 5- or 6-point lead, my profession is done.”
Many election forecasts, including from The New York Times and FiveThirtyEight, gave Clinton more than a 70 percent chance of winning the morning of Nov. 8, 2016.
As of today, FiveThirtyEight gives Biden an 87% chance of winning the election. The New York Times has since abandoned their forecasting since a poor performance in 2016.
Americans are giving different odds to Biden and Trump. A Gallup survey conducted in September showed only 40% of Americans believe Biden will win in November.
Additionally, a model from Helmut Norpoth who is a professor at Stony Brook model has the exact opposite prediction than FiveThirtyEight.
Norpoth’s model, which has correctly predicted each presidential election since 1996 except for Bush’s 2000 victory, currently gives Trump a 91% chance to win the election.