Democrats went into the 2020 election expecting a “Blue wave” to wash over the United States. Democrat Joe Biden expected to win in a landslide yet the race is proving to be much closer than he bargained for. Democrats also expected to gain a big increase in their majority in the House of Representatives but have actually lost multiple seats they had won in 2018. Dems went into the election with a 16-17 lead but now will most likely see their majority margin shrink.
Fox News reports:
House Democrats had hoped for an increase in seats, with a gain of just five seats or so making a “bad” night and a gain of 10 to 15 making a “good” night.
But so far, across the board, House Democrats have consistently failed to flip seats held by vulnerable Republicans, and repeatedly lost districts Democrats flipped from red to blue in 2018. They could also stand to lose seats in New York, Michigan and California.
They appear to have lost seats they picked up in Iowa, New Mexico, Florida and Oklahoma in 2018, while also losing a seat held by House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson, D-Minn., to Republican Michelle Fischbach.
This means that, at best for Democrats, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., holds a small majority. That could produce echoes of 2016 as some Democrats questioned Pelosi’s leadership and delayed leadership elections.
In the Senate, Democrats were hoping to take the majority from Republicans but now it seems they will fail in that attempt as well.
In a report from The Daily Wire:
Republicans had to defend 23 Senate seats in 2020, while Democrats had to defend just 12. Based on those numbers, it appeared likely that Republicans would lose the country’s upper chamber, yet it now appears likely they will maintain their majority. There were about 10 Senate races to watch this election, and so far, Republicans have been declared the winner in four and are leading in three others, while the Georgia special election appears headed to a run-off. Democrats so far have won just two of the battleground elections, flipping a seat in Arizona and one in Colorado.
The New York Times Senate election results page listed seven seats as toss-ups. Republicans have either won or are leading in all of them, with the exception of the Georgia runoff, in which a Republican and Democrat will face off again. Republicans have also won five of the six seats the Times listed as leaning GOP, and incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK) is leading in the last one. Just three seats were labeled as leaning Democrat, and Democrats have won two of the three, but Republican John James currently holds a slim lead in Michigan, though that may not hold.
The polls in many of these races showed close elections, yet in some of these cases, Republicans far outperformed the polls. In South Carolina, for example, polls ahead of the election showed incumbent Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) up by just 1-3 points. He ended up winning by 14 points. Jaime Harrison, Graham’s Democrat challenger, raised around $100 million for the race and still lost.
A similar situation played out in Kentucky, where Democrat groups spend about $100 million trying to defeat Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) but lost big.